Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents’ forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of ination and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this nding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts. Journal of Economic Literature classi cation: C53, E32, E37
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